Title: The Changing Landscape of Cigarette Sales in the US: A Comprehensive Analysis

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## Introduction

Cigarette sales in the US have undergone significant changes in recent years. While a 2020 Federal Trade Commission (FTC) report raised concerns about an increase in sales to wholesalers and retailers, other studies have indicated a decline in cigarette use among both youth and adults. In this article, we will delve into the trends in cigarette retail sales, menthol cigarette sales, and cigarette prices in the US from 2015 to 2021. By analyzing data from various sources, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the changing landscape of cigarette sales in the country.

To assess the trends in cigarette sales, we collected data on total cigarette retail sales, menthol cigarette sales, and cigarette prices from 2015 to 2021. The sales data were obtained from IRi, a company that records brick-and-mortar retail scanner sales. We aggregated the sales of 20-cigarette packs on an annual basis for the continental United States and Washington, DC. We analyzed the trends using the Joinpoint Regression Program, version 4.9.0.0, and calculated the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Overall Trends in Cigarette Sales

From February 1, 2015, to December 26, 2021, the annual number of cigarette packs sold decreased by 27.2%, from 12.5 billion packs to 9.1 billion packs (AAPC, -5.3%; 95% CI, -6.6% to -3.9%). This decline in sales aligns with the continuing decrease in cigarette use among youth and adults in the US. During the same period, dollar sales decreased by 6.0%, from $69.8 billion to $65.6 billion (AAPC, -1.2%; 95% CI, -2.0% to -0.3%). Interestingly, cigarette prices increased by 29.5%, from $5.57 to $7.22 per pack (AAPC, 4.3%; 95% CI, 4.1% to 4.6%) (Figure 1).

Menthol Cigarette Sales

Menthol cigarettes accounted for approximately 33.0% of total cigarette sales in 2021. There was no significant change in the percentage of menthol cigarette sales from 2015 to 2021. This indicates that the decline in overall sales was consistent across both menthol and non-menthol cigarettes.

Recent Trends in Cigarette Sales

From January 26, 2020, to December 26, 2021, there was a further decrease in annual cigarette pack sales by 7.6% (from 9.8 billion to 9.1 billion packs). Dollar sales also experienced a slight decline of 1.4% (from $66.5 billion to $65.6 billion), while prices increased by 6.8% (from $6.76 to $7.22 per pack). The stability of the menthol share at 33.0% during this period suggests that the changes in sales were not specific to menthol cigarettes. packs of cigarettes

Comparison with FTC Data

It’s important to note that the trends observed in the retail sales data may not align with the data reported by the Federal Trade Commission. The FTC data reflect cigarettes sold by major manufacturers to wholesalers, distributors, and armed forces personnel both within and outside the US, whereas retail sales data specifically capture consumer purchases at the point of sale within the US. Additionally, online sales and sales in Alaska and Hawaii may be included in the FTC data, while retail sales data do not cover online sales and make distinctions based on location or type of retailers.

Factors Impacting Cigarette Sales

The decline in retail cigarette sales can be attributed to a variety of factors. Firstly, the overall decrease in cigarette use among youth and adults in the US has contributed to the decline in sales. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on the global economy, consumer purchase patterns, and the supply chain have likely influenced sales trends. It is worth noting that prices increased during the study period, but it remains unclear whether this is a result of higher production costs or retailers raising prices to compensate for the loss of revenue due to low demand during the pandemic. packs of cigarettes

Limitations and Future Implications

It is important to acknowledge the limitations of this analysis. Retail sales data do not directly reflect actual consumption, and therefore, caution should be exercised when drawing conclusions about the prevalence of cigarette use based solely on sales figures. Furthermore, this analysis is descriptive in nature, and causal relationships cannot be inferred. packs of cigarettes

Continued surveillance of tobacco sales is crucial for gaining timely insights into emerging trends in consumer product preferences. These insights can inform policy planning and practice, enabling stakeholders to develop effective strategies to reduce cigarette use and promote public health.

Conclusion

The landscape of cigarette sales in the US has undergone significant changes in recent years. Retail sales data indicate a consistent decline in both the number of cigarette packs sold and dollar sales, accompanied by an increase in prices. The stability of the menthol share suggests that the decline in sales is not specific to menthol cigarettes. However, it is important to interpret these trends with caution, considering the limitations of retail sales data. By staying vigilant and using data-driven approaches, policymakers and public health experts can continue to address the challenges posed by cigarette use and work towards a healthier future for all. packs of cigarettes